NFL Analysis
9/13/24
7 min read
What's Next for Miami Dolphins After Tua Tagovailoa Injury?
On fourth-and-4 late in the third quarter, with the Dolphins trailing 31-10, Tua Tagovailoa saw an opening in the defense and scrambled for a first down. After crossing the first down line, Tagovailoa lowered his head and made contact with Damar Hamlin, then dropped to the ground with a fencing response associated with a brain injury.
Tagovailoa left the game and was immediately diagnosed with a concussion, the third confirmed, but likely fourth, concussion of his NFL career. That doesn’t include a concussion during his final season at Alabama on the play he also suffered a hip injury.
Because of that history, the scene and reaction were heightened. As soon as the quarterback went down, players from both teams went to their knees knowing the seriousness of this type of injury for this player.
Tua’s injury history
In 2022, Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 3 against the Bills. His head hit the ground and he strumbled when he attempted to get up, but it was called a “back” injury and Tagovailoa returned to the game.
He was cleared to play the next week on Thursday Night Football, just four days later. In that game, Tagovailoa had his head slammed to the ground against the Bengals and suffered another concussion. He cleared the protocol and returned to play two weeks later. In Week 16 of that season, Tagavolia suffered another hard hit to the head but stayed in and was not diagnosed with a concussion until after the game.
The handling of the Week 3 and Week 16 hits led to an NFL investigation. Miami was not found to be at fault, but the NFL fired the independent neurologist consultant who cleared Tagoaviloa to return in that Week 3 game. The league also changed its concussion protocol to include an ataxia clause, allowing a spotter to pull a player from a game if visual signs of a concussion are spotted.
With multiple head injuries in a short span, Tagoaviloa considered retirement during the 2022 season. In an interview with the Dan LeBatard Show before this season, Tagovailoa revealed his mother was a driving voice in considering retirement.
Tagovailoa decided against retiring and instead bulked up and took jujitsu classes to learn how to fall properly. He did not miss a game in 2023 and led the league in passing yards.
Thursday’s aftermath
After the game, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel was asked if it was safe for Tagovailoa to play football in the future.
"I don't approach things that I'm far in theory of expertise. I'm just there to support my teammate," McDaniel said. "For me to go ahead and forecast things that I don't know in my non-field of expertise, I don't think that's appropriate. I think we'll find out some more information tomorrow in terms of where Tua is at. He'll be able to spend a good amount of time being evaluated and then we'll have conversations and progress as appropriate."
That remains the tough thing about head injuries. For all we have learned — anyone watching at home immediately spotted the fencing response and knew the severity of the injury — this is still so much unknown with concussions. Each concussion is unique and there is no set timeframe for a recovery.
Personally, I’ve had three serious diagnosed concussions. The first was the hardest impact and I have no memory from seconds before the impact until hours later when I was in the hospital getting checked out. I was symptom-free the following day. My third concussion featured the least significant actual impact but I woke up with a headache every day for more than a year afterward. However, concussions do not impact anyone the same way and even my anecdotal experiences mean nothing for how someone else, like Tagovailoa, will feel and respond.
On Friday morning, McDaniel said he was not thinking about Tagovailoa’s return and that trying to put a timeline on it would add unnecessary stress.
Shortly after the injury, there were numerous calls for Tagovailoa to retire, something he could have to consider again. He just signed his $212 million extension this offseason.
How can the Dolphins move forward?
The Miami offense is designed in a way to not get Tagovailoa hit or pressured. No team throws the ball quicker than the Dolphins, which protects both the quarterback and offensive line from seeing pressure. Tagovailoa’s ability to get the ball out and push the ball down the field has been key to allowing that quick passing game to work.
But the Bills were all over the Dolphins to start the game, which led to some conservative play-calling throughout the game. Miami leaned heavily into the run game, even in a two-minute drill while trailing in the first half, and threw a ton of screens to the outside.
Even with a quick time to throw, the Dolphins allowed 12 pressures, per Next Gen Stats, at an average of 2.4 seconds to pressure. Miami did not allow a lot of pressure by design last season but the Dolphins allowed the quickest time to pressure when they did.
Von Miller was constantly in the backfield, picking against Dolphins right tackle Austin Jackson.
Left tackle Terron Armstead was also not 100 percent during the game, leaving the field a few times to get a shoulder harness worked on. McDaniel also said there were moments in the game when he had to protect Armstead from injuring himself more.
Placing another quarterback with Tagovailoa’s release behind that offense line will be challenging to stop pressure. For now, that will fall on Skyler Thompson, who filled in for Tagovailoa and an injured Teddy Bridgewater during the 2022 season and won the backup job over Mike White in training camp. McDaniel said Miami will bring in another quarterback for depth since Thompson is the only quarterback on the active roster. Veteran Tim Boyle is on the practice squad.
It doesn’t sound like Miami will bring in a quarterback to challenge Thompson, say former Dolphin Ryan Tannehill, and putting a sack-prone quarterback like Tannehill behind this Miami offensive line might not be a great idea anyway.
For the time being, Miami’s offense could look a lot like it did on Thursday night. There will be a heavy dose of the run game with De’Von Achane and a healthy Raheem Mostert — and the passing game built around screens and swing passes to the flats.
Without the fluky interceptions, that might have worked against the Bills. Tagovailoa had a 53.6 percent success rate despite averaging -0.33 EPA per play, per TruMedia. Thompson came in with a 31.6 percent success rate.
The quality of the quarterback play will not be Miami’s top priority as they hope for the best quality of life for their starter.
It’s unclear where Tagovailoa and the Dolphins will go from here but the safety of all involved will rightfully take the highest importance.
