NFL Analysis
9/4/24
4 min read
What's Next For NFL's DB Market After Patrick Surtain's Record-Setting Contract
The price for NFL defensive backs just went up.
ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Wednesday that the Denver Broncos agreed to a four-year, $96 million extension with star CB Patrick Surtain II. The deal includes $77.5 million guaranteed, making Surtain the highest-paid defensive back in league history.
With an average annual value (AAV) of $24 million, Surtain blows all previous DB deals out of the water. According to Over the Cap, only five defensive backs have had a contract exceeding $20 million AAV. Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jaire Alexander were at the top of the defensive back market with more than $21 million AAV, but the Broncos star has reset the market rate.
How Surtain II Earned His Contract
The Broncos may not have the talent of a Super Bowl contender, but they have successfully developed one of the NFL's best cornerbacks in Surtain.
Everything lined up perfectly for Surtain to become a superstar. The son of former All-Pro corner Patrick Surtain, the younger Surtain was a 5-star recruit and high school All-American. He went to Alabama to play for the Crimson Tide, where he would become a unanimous All-American, SEC Defensive Player of the Year and national champion.
Everything about Surtain screamed first-round pick heading into the league. At 6-foot-2 and 208 pounds, Surtain had the size, athletic ability, instincts, and pedigree to be a future star.
The Broncos took Surtain with the ninth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. In three short seasons, he's quickly established himself as Denver's best player. He's a two-time Pro Bowler and a first-team All-Pro in 2022.
iTeams haven't been shy about targeting Surtain in coverage, but that hasn't stopped him from dominating as a shutdown corner. He's been targeted 243 times in three seasons. Despite that, opposing quarterbacks have only posted an 82.6 passer rating on those targets, throwing 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while Surtain has logged 24 pass breakups.
Patrick Surtain II is that dude. 6’2 200+ pound corners shouldn’t be able to transition like this. pic.twitter.com/nCfg3fzMYM
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 2, 2022
Surtain has also been a reliable tackler as a pro. He's only missed 17 tackles during the last three seasons, and his missed tackle rate of 3.9 percent was the seventh-best among eligible cornerbacks in 2023.
With coverage and tackling ability, Surtain is the complete package. The Broncos are working on rebuilding the defense around him and made sure to secure his for the long run with his record-breaking extension.
Who will be the NFL's first $100 million defensive back?
Surtain reset the defensive back market with a $96 million deal. As the NFL's salary cap skyrockets, it's more than likely that the league will have its first $100 million cornerback before the start of the 2025 season.
A handful of defensive backs entering free agency could get close to that nine-figure deal. This past season, Charvarius Ward became a second-team All-Pro cornerback for the San Francisco 49ers. He led the NFL with 23 pass breakups while logging a career-high five interceptions.
Teams may not be willing to pay top-of-market money to a 28-year-old with one breakout season, but another strong year in 2024 could establish Ward as a top-tier cornerback.
Jevon Holland is another 2025 free agent to keep an eye out for. While he hasn't garnered any Pro Bowl or All-Pro honors, he's stuffed the stat sheet for the Miami Dolphins. He has 239 tackles, 21 pass breakups, five interceptions, and four forced fumbles in 45 games. He'll have a real opportunity to earn a contract similar to Antoine Winfield Jr.'s at the top of the safety market.
Other upcoming free agents include Paulson Adebo, Asante Samuel Jr., and Carlton Davis. There's an outside chance any of them could receive market-setting money, but that would require an uptick in production.
Other names to monitor down the road include Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton and New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. Both players will likely stay under contract through 2026 on their rookie deals, but will likely sign record-breaking contracts once they're eligible for extensions.
