NFL Analysis
1/16/25
13 min read
What's Next for Quarterbacks Who Lost on Wild-Card Weekend?
The cold reality about playoff football and quarterbacks is that legacies and narratives are mainly created based on postseason success or failure.
Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson will fall short in Sunday’s divisional-round matchup in Buffalo. That player will be labeled as the quarterback who, once again, hasn’t led his team to the Super Bowl. The winner between them may have the same fate if they’re beaten again by Patrick Mahomes (if he and the Chiefs beat the Texans) in the AFC title game.
At least Allen, Jackson, and six other quarterbacks are playing this weekend.
That’s not the case for the six losing QBs in the wild card round. The effects of their defeats vary from devastating to damaging to virtually no impact.
Let’s examine what last weekend’s losses mean for each quarterback:
What Wild-Card Losses Mean for Each Quarterback
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings 
Sam Darnold led the way in the category of devastating losses last weekend, and it’s really been a two-week disaster for him.
It's doubtful there’s ever been an NFL player who has lost more credibility and money than Darnold has with poor performances in the 31-9 Week 18 loss at Detroit with the NFC North title and No. 1 seed on the line followed by being far outplayed by Matthew Stafford in Monday night’s 27-9 wild-card loss to the Rams.
Darnold and the Vikings entered the Lions game on a nine-game winning streak with a victory against the Packers the previous week in which Darnold passed for a career-high 377 yards and three touchdowns. His teammates hoisted him up in a viral moment as he entered the locker room.
Since then, Darnold’s Cinderella season has gone kaput. Two prime-time, big-stakes games, and two duds. In Detroit, he completed only 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards with too many overthrows of open receivers, including several times to Justin Jefferson in the red zone.
In the wild-card game, in which he had the benefit of playing in Glendale, Arizona, instead of Los Angeles due to the wildfires, Darnold was 25 of 40 for 245 yards with one touchdown and two turnovers.
On the interception, he missed an open Jalen Nailor and forced a pass to well-covered Jordan Addison and a lost fumble on a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown.
The Vikings’ offensive line had a bad game, but Darnold held the ball far too long on many of the NFL record-tying nine sacks he took (six seconds on one of the sacks). He consistently was late on his throws, which were often behind his receivers.
Darnold’s overall regular season was outstanding. He led the surprising Vikings to a 14-3 record, the most wins by a quarterback in his first year with a team. He had 13 games with a 100-plus passer rating, one short of tying Aaron Rodgers’ record.
However, the last two bad outings have soured the fan base and likely coach Kevin O’Connell, even though he publicly insists the team must consider his “overall body of work.”
In the regular season, Darnold produced career-bests in passing yards (4,319, fifth in the league), TD passes (35, fifth), and passer rating (102.5, sixth) and was selected to his first Pro Bowl. Yet, the former Jets bust appears to have opened the door for 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, who is recovering from a knee injury that cost him his rookie season, to step into the starting role in 2025 rather than backing up Darnold next season.
Darnold’s sub-par play the past two weeks, especially his wilting under the bright lights of his first playoff game, has cost him a franchise tag at $40 million with the Vikings (that appeared likely through Week 17) and a possible $100 million-plus contract with another team when he hits free agency in March.
He could wind up back in Minnesota on the same one-year, $10 million contract as this past season.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
When the Chargers extended Justin Herbert for five years and $262.5 million last July, he was expected to perform well in big games, like last Saturday’s wild-card round matchup in Houston.
The 2020 first-rounder had his best regular season in 2024 with 11 wins, a passer rating of 101.7 to rank seventh, and his fewest interceptions (three, fewest among league starters).
Then, he proceeded to have one of the worst games of his career, completing 14 of 32 passes for 242 yards and a career-high four interceptions for a dismal 40.9 passer rating in the Chargers’ 32-12 loss.
Herbert underthrew a pass cross-field to Quentin Johnston that was intercepted. His high throw intended for Ladd McConkey turned into a pick-6, putting the Chargers down 14 points in the third quarter.
It wasn’t all his fault in Houston. Two of his four picks came on passes his receivers should have caught. Coach Jim Harbaugh said the offensive line didn’t protect him well enough as the Texans’ pass rush pressured Herbert on half of his dropbacks and sacked him four times.
This loss makes him 0-2 in playoff games, including the 2022 wild-card round when Herbert and the Chargers built a 27-0 lead before losing 31-30 in the third-largest blown lead in playoff history. In that game, Herbert completed only 10 of 19 passes for 134 yards in the second half, as he produced no fourth-quarter points to stem the tide.
Herbert’s 21,093 passing yards are the most by a quarterback in his first five seasons. But the negative of his two playoff defeats when he hasn’t played well enough is a career downer. That’s the reality for a quarterback with no playoff success.
A devastating loss in Houston for Herbert? Probably not, but it’s definitely damaging to his reputation.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love is taking heat for throwing three interceptions as the Packers' No. 5 ranked offense was held to 10 points by the Eagles’ top-ranked defense in the wild-card loss at Philadelphia.
In Love’s defense, his deep threat Christian Watson missed the game with an ACL injury, and Love also was without his other top wide receivers, Jayden Reed and Romeo Dobbs, in the second half. His top offensive lineman, Pro Bowler Elgton Jenkins, also was hurt early in the game.
But Love’s inaccuracy was costly. He underthrew a deep ball for the first pick and made a bad throw that Zack Baun intercepted on the second one.
The 2020 first-rounder began this season with 11 interceptions in the first eight games as he battled through a knee injury. However, he didn’t throw any picks in his last seven regular season games. He finished the regular season with 25 touchdown passes, and his 96.7 passer rating ranked 12th.
Love’s career was on the upswing entering 2024 after a tremendous finish to the previous season when he threw 18 touchdown passes and only one interception in the last eight regular season games with a 6-2 record during that stretch to lead the Packers to a wild-card spot.
He then led a 48-32 wild-card round upset of the second-seeded Cowboys in Dallas in a game the Packers led 27-0 in the first half. Love passed for 272 yards and three touchdowns that day and nearly led a divisional-round upset in San Francisco before a late interception sealed the loss.
His performance led to a four-year, $220 million contract extension last July (making him the second-highest-paid quarterback in new money). Expectations were high for Love and the Packers to battle the Detroit Lions for the NFC North title, but knee and elbow injuries cost Love play time and affected his performance this season.
Love and the Packers have to get over the hump against the top teams, as they wound up with two losses each to the Eagles, Lions, and Vikings. Their 11-6 record dropped them to third place in the division and the NFC’s seventh seed, sending them on their ill-fated trip to Philly for a brutal wild-card defeat that is somewhat damaging to Love’s reputation, but the 26-year-old has plenty of years ahead to make amends.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield led the Buccaneers to the NFC South title with six wins in the last seven games. The former first overall pick of the Cleveland Browns — now on his fourth team — had his best regular season with career highs in passing yards (4,500, third), passer rating (105.8, fourth), touchdown passes (41, second) and completion rate (71.4%, fifth).
Turnovers were a problem, however. He threw 16 interceptions in the regular season (tied for the most in the league) and lost two fumbles.
In the three-point wild-card round loss to the Washington Commanders, Mayfield had a high completion percentage (83%) on 15 of 18 passing with two touchdowns but only 185 passing yards as the Bucs were outgained 350-284.
Mayfield’s turnover issue struck at an inopportune time in the fourth quarter when he fumbled while trying to hand off on a jet sweep. The Commanders recovered at the Tampa Bay 13-yard line and drove to a touchdown to take a 20-17 lead.
On the ensuing drive, Mayfield was stopped for no gain on 2nd-and-1 from the Washington 12, and the Bucs had to settle for a tying field goal after a third down loss by Bucky Irving.
That set the stage for Jayden Daniels to lead the Commanders on a drive to the winning field goal.
The Buccaneers and Mayfield were favored to win this game as the No.3 seed playing at home, especially after beating the Commanders 37-20 in the season opener when Mayfield tossed four touchdown passes.
Mayfield had played well in last year’s playoffs with 337 passing yards and three touchdowns in the 32-9 wild-card win against the Philadelphia Eagles and then 349 passing yards and three touchdowns but two interceptions in the 31-23 divisional-round loss at Detroit.
The expectation was that Mayfield and the Bucs would at least reach the divisional round for a rematch with the Eagles. Losing to a clutch Rookie-of-the-Year quarterback in Daniels is no sin, so the loss was damaging but not fatal to Mayfield, who has two years left on his three-year, $100 million deal.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
As a rookie, the postseason was all gravy to Bo Nix. Regardless of the wild-card game outcome in Buffalo, his first season already was a success with a 93.3 passer rating (29 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 66.3% completions).
Plus, he led Denver to five wins in the last seven regular season games to finish 10-7 and earn the AFC’s seventh seed and the team’s first playoff berth since 2015. Nix threw for 3,775 yards (12th) and rushed for 430 yards and four touchdowns in a solid rookie season.
The Broncos were big road underdogs on a chilly day to Josh Allen and the Bills. Things started well as Nix led an opening drive in which he threw a 43-yard touchdown pass to Troy Franklin. It was only a 10-7 lead for Buffalo at halftime, but the Bills defense shut down Nix and the Broncos offense in the second half, limiting him to 5 of 10 passing for 42 yards and 0 for 4 on third down.
Allen, James Cook, and the Bills won the time of possession battle 42 to 18 minutes and cruised late to the 31-7 victory.
Coach Sean Payton has his quarterback after the Russell Wilson fiasco. Now, Payton has to give his young quarterback additional weapons to further elevate him in Year 2 and beyond. But even with the playoff loss, Nix’s career is off to a great start.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Things are not so rosy for Nix’s predecessor in Denver — Russell Wilson — after a fine start to his first season in Pittsburgh with wins in six of his first seven starts, which devolved with five losses to end the year, including the 28-14 playoff defeat in Baltimore.
Wilson and the offense's wild-card round loss in Baltimore started poorly. They were shut out in the first half and had only 59 total yards, with all four possessions ending in punts as the Ravens led 21-0.
Wilson did lead two touchdown drives in the third quarter and finished 20 of 29 passing for 270 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers, but Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and the Ravens controlled the clock (doubling the Steelers in time of possession) to close the victory.
Wilson averaged only 175 passing yards in the last four regular season games. He didn’t take over the starting reins from Justin Fields until Week 7 after dealing with a calf injury. The former Super Bowl champion in Seattle produced 100-plus passer ratings in five of his first seven games this season. He had 16 touchdown passes, only five interceptions, a passer rating of 95.6 (ranking 14th), and 155 rushing yards with two rushing touchdowns.
His lack of mobility compared to his Seattle years was apparent, as he rushed only three times for six yards against the Ravens on Saturday.
Wilson played this season on a one-year, minimum salary deal ($1.21 million) in Pittsburgh, with Denver paying him $38 million guaranteed on his former deal. He wants to return to the Steelers, but coach Mike Tomlin has been non-committal.
A playoff win against an arch-rival would’ve gone a long way toward Wilson’s return to the Steel City. The five losses to end the season certainly damaged his cause, as it is reported that Wilson and Steelers’ offensive coordinator Arthur Smith did not have a good working relationship.
Fields, a better runner but lesser passer at this stage of his career, is also a free agent. We’ll see if the Steelers choose the 36-year-old Wilson or 25-year-old Fields as their 2025 starter or look to an underwhelming free agent and draft class of quarterbacks.
