NFL Analysis
10/3/24
8 min read
What's Wrong With Trevor Lawrence This Season?
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4. They have not won the past nine games started by Trevor Lawrence.
The former first-overall pick looks lost behind center, and his development appears to have regressed in Year 4, shortly after signing a five-year, $275 million contract this offseason that tied him as the highest-paid player in the league when signed but has since been passed by Dak Prescott.
This was not what the Jaguars were supposed to look like, so why do they?
As you might expect, that's a loaded question. If the answer were simply one thing, we wouldn’t need to spend so much time trying to figure it out. There’s also the fact that Jacksonville is not some bad team with nothing working. Yes, the Jaguars are 24th in EPA per play and 25th in passing success rate, but they also rank sixth in explosive play rate, though 19th in explosive pass rate.
Poor Execution
Ask Doug Pederson, and the blame falls almost exclusively on the players. After the loss to the Houston Texans in Week 4, Pederson shot down any possibility that coaching or play-calling could have been a factor.
“As coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays. It’s a two-way street,” Pederson said. Earlier in his press conference, he noted there were plays missed on the field.
Technically, Pederson is not wrong. There were plays — two potential touchdowns — missed by Lawrence. They were wide open, and Lawrence missed Brian Thomas and Christian Kirk on the throws.
The two big Trevor Lawrence misses against Houston pic.twitter.com/vrehWpcgTv
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) October 3, 2024
This has been an issue for Lawrence this season. On plays from a clean pocket, Lawrence is 31st in completion percentage at 61 percent, ahead of Anthony Richardson, and has the third-highest rate of inaccurate passes at 15.9 percent, behind Richardson and Bryce Young, per TruMedia.
Lawrence also has the third-highest average depth of target from a clean pocket, with the highest rate of throws traveling at least 20 air yards (19.5 percent).
After the past two years of the Jacksonville passing offense being super condensed from quick passing and not having an explosive element, there has been an effort to push the ball down the field more often.
That has pros and cons. While there are those misses, Lawrence still ranks 16th in EPA per play from a clean pocket, and a league-leading 62 percent of his clean-pocket completions have picked up a first down or touchdown.
So he’s trying more difficult throws, and they’re effective when they work, but Lawrence still has a -11 completion percentage over expectation without pressure, according to Next Gen Stats, again better than only Richardson.
The production is in line with Lawrence's performance from a clean pocket in the past two seasons, but it’s been done in a different way.
Pederson wants to rely on Lawrence for some of these more difficult throws, and Lawrence’s skill set should allow it.
On Monday, after the Texans game, Pederson talked about leaning on Lawrence to make plays.
“We missed Christian [Kirk] early in the third quarter… maybe we score, I don’t know,” Pederson said. “The easy thing would have been second-and-10, to run the football. Not going to do that. I mean, yes, I will, but in this case, no. I want Trevor… you gotta put the ball in his hands. He’s our guy. We gotta continue to trust him, and I’m going to continue to do that.”
Pederson then mentioned the next play was a miss to Gabe Davis.
“He’s seeing the field well, we’re just not hitting,” Pederson continued. “He knows he has to make those throws. Those are NFL big-time throws.”
This is where the disconnect between player and offense shows. Yes, Lawrence is the type of quarterback who can and should make those throws consistently, but he shouldn’t have to do so at the rate he’s been asked to so far this year.
Part of this falls on Lawrence, who has gone for the big play while passing up on some open underneath throws at times, but that also stems from the offense's issues.
It's Not 2017 Anymore
There’s nothing simple about the Jacksonville offense. The “easy” throws in the offense are few and far between, and those NFL big-time throws leave a small margin for error to accomplish at a high rate.
Just look at the setup of Jacksonville’s offense. Pederson still looks like he’s running versions of his 2017 Philadelphia Eagles offense. That’s what won him a Super Bowl, but 2017 might as well be 1997, given how offenses have evolved since then.
Per ESPN Analytics, Jacksonville has the seventh-lowest overall rate of motion and, more importantly, ranks 31st in motion at the snap. With offenses around the league constantly using this type of motion to create easy openings, that’s not in the Jaguars’ playbook.
This philosophy is similar to how the Jaguars handle the blitz. Against extra rushers, Lawrence has routinely relied on throwing the ball deep as the hot option instead of working shorter answers. Offenses that rely on go balls against the blitz typically struggle because those are already low-percentage throws, and it shows a lack of an overall plan to creatively beat these pressures.
Look at where Lawrence has thrown against the blitz in the three years under Pederson. During the past two seasons, the go-ball has been heavily relied upon.
Against the blitz this season, Lawrence is only completing 46.4 percent of his passes and has a 34.4 percent success rate.
Now, compare Lawrence’s route tree and efficiency against the two quarterbacks who have been the most productive in the league against the blitz this season — Josh Allen (0.88 EPA per play) and Sam Darnold (0.85).
We have a superhuman quarterback and one playing in what might be the league's best offensive environment.
Lawrence’s biggest drop-off this season has come against pressure, and it’s stemmed partly from being unable to get the ball downfield. While Lawrence is throwing the ball shorter, he’s completing fewer passes, and the passes that have been completed are far less effective.
He’s also getting the ball out faster under pressure but getting hit at a higher rate. That’s impacted Lawerence’s feel in the pocket — something that had been a strength for him earlier in his career. Now, he’s anticipating something going wrong or a defender in his face. It’s speeding up his internal clock, and it’s rushing his process.
Let’s go back to the Thomas miss from the Houston game. Lawrence has a clean pocket but sees that his left tackle is getting pushed back. He’s preparing for pressure, so he drifts back into the pocket with small hops. It’s difficult to have good accuracy when the base and footwork can be thrown off like that.
We’re seeing this impact Lawrence more often than it has in the past. He’s getting asked to pass more, putting him in situations where the defense can attack and play the pass. He anticipates pressure without having easy passing options, so he must attempt difficult throws. Those fall incomplete, and he’s asked to do it again. Rinse. Repeat. This is the Jacksonville offense.
What Happens Next?
Pederson is correct in saying that there are plays to be made. But he’s also not providing an environment that makes it easier for the quarterback to make those plays. No one is helping each other in this offense. It’s a broken environment that doesn’t feel like it will get any better.
The Jaguars are putting their quarterback in difficult situations and asking him to carry an oversized load for the offense. When the weight gets to the quarterback, and he struggles, it’s his fault. There’s a lack of trust going both ways.
At some point, there will be a clean break from this coach-quarterback duo. Considering that one-half of the combination just signed a massive contract extension, we can see which one is likely to go.
There is still a good quarterback in Lawrence, and that’s clear when he’s had time to throw and has ripped some of those throws from a clean pocket. Installing a more modern offense with easier answers on a down-to-down basis can take some of the weight off and give the quarterback more confidence to make the more difficult throws when needed. That’s going to be the ideal end result for the Jaguars.
For now, the question will be how much fixing the quarterback is needed, as this current relationship isn’t working for either party.
