Analysis

12/29/22

12 min read

Wheeler's NFL Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Kev Wheeler

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Below you’ll find my Week 17 fantasy football rankings for PPR/Half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-25 QB Rankings, top-50 RB Rankings, top-60 WR Rankings, and top-18 TE Rankings. I actually submit these rankings to two different rankings competitions, one with PPR scoring, the other Half-PPR. They are far more accurate for PPR simply because PPR scoring is less influenced by touchdowns.

When I look into weekly matchups, I only use the past five games of data. Anything that happened six weeks ago is just going to cloud our judgment. We are looking at a completely full slate with bye weeks being over, navigating injuries might prove to be the difference-maker, though.

Quarterback Rankings

During the past five games, the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Jared Goff, Justin Fields, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson appear to have the best matchups in Week 17. I am NOT advising you to start Wilson in your championship game, but if you’re desperate, he isn’t the worst option.

At first glance, it looks like the Eagles could be a good matchup for Andy Dalton. But quarterbacks have been beating the Eagles by rushing the ball, and I don’t see Dalton running anywhere. Fire up Taysom Hill if you can use him at TE.

Here are the Dallas Cowboys' total weekly points since getting Dak Prescott back from injury: 24, 49, 28, 40, 28, 54, 27, 34, 40. 

Teddy Bridgewater should be starting for an injured Tua Tagovailoa, even if he clears concussion protocol, the NFL needs to protect him from himself. Seems to be an issue with most people these days.

#NFL Injury FAQ#Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa - Likely out Wk 17. Lean towards wk 18 too

Yes - proximity to prior concussions may have made him more susceptible

Expect him ~100% next season w/o highly elevated short-term risk. TBD if he'd keep playing with #CTE risk rising

1/6

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) December 27, 2022

No matter how much I need Jalen Hurts to play this week, I think it's likely they turn to Gardner Minshew once again. Minshew is startable because of the weapons the Eagles have. 

The Colts will be starting Nick Foles at QB against the Giants in Week 17. They aren’t going back to Matt Ryan or to the youngest option in Sam Ehlinger. Foles threw for only 143 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions against the Chargers in Week 16. Interim head coach Jeff Saturday just wants to win, and I guess he thinks Foles is a better option than Ehlinger. Ryan sitting is an organizational business decision.

The Las Vegas Raiders have benched Derek Carr in favor of Jarrett Stidham to finish out the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Davante Adams decides to quiet quit.

Running Back Rankings

Most analysts look at fantasy points allowed when judging matchups, but for the RB position, I look at yards per carry (YPC) allowed. YPC is generally a misused metric that tells us less about running back efficiency but does give us a good indication of defensive efficiency. 

There are a lot of running backs with good matchups in Week 17. Here are just a few of my favorites: Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter against the Seattle Seahawks, Brian Robinson (or Antonio Gibson) against the Cleveland Browns, Zack Moss against the Giants and D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams facing the Chicago Bears. 

Here are all of James Conner's fantasy PPR finishes since returning from injury: RB19, RB2, RB15, RB4, RB6, RB12.

Austin Ekeler appeared to be hurt on the final play of the game in Week 16. Now, he’s listed on the injury report (knee) for the first time since Week 9. The Chargers just clinched the playoffs, and I need him in championship week.

Austin Ekeler might've pushed teams into the championship game with nine red zone carries, five of which came in goal-to-go situations for two rushing scores.

Ekeler is the only non-QB with 15+ touchdowns.

Derrick Henry & Jamaal Williams tied for 2nd with 14 @TruMediaSports

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) December 27, 2022

Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier has been emerging as the primary RB with Caleb Huntley (Achilles) out for the season and the decline of Cordarrelle Patterson. He has tallied more than 115 total yards in each of the past two weeks against some solid defenses. Last week, he played in 59% of the snaps, had 22 touches, 117 total yds and a 15.1% target share. He should be considered a solid start as your RB2 against a porous Arizona run defense.

#Titans RB Derrick Henry did not practice today with a hip injury. Tennessee plays on Thursday night and the result of the game has no impact on their playoff situation. Week 18 vs. JAX will determine if they're in or not.

Holding Henry out would not be surprising.

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 26, 2022

If Titans RB Derrick Henry misses Week 16, Julius Chestnut and Hassan Haskins will probably split touches and are not worth starting if you have another decent option.

Leonard Fournette rushed 20 times for 72 rushing yards and caught nine passes on 10 targets for 90 receiving yards and 162 yards of total offense in Week 16. He then proceeded to tweet about how he did it while nursing a Lisfranc injury (the tweet has since been deleted). I expect we see more Rachaad White in a must-win game for the division title. 

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Wide Receiver

I examine a few different statistics when trying to find good or bad wide receiver matchups, but receiving yards allowed per game is the most correlated with fantasy points allowed to the WR position. The Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants and Indianapolis Colts are all within the top eight in each category. 

CeeDee Lamb should have a great game Thursday night. Michael Gallup is certainly worth consideration in deeper leagues. He should see roughly six or seven targets at a high average depth against a weak Tennessee defense.

Tyreek Hill totaled 337 receiving yards in the two games started by Bridgewater where he had more than 20 attempts. The only issue seems to be Bridgewater doesn’t target receivers in the end zone.

The Green Bay WRs, Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs should have a big day against the Vikings, with Christian Watson (hip) highly questionable to play. 

Even in a prime matchup against Detroit, there aren’t any Chicago Bears wide receivers I would recommend playing in any format. 

The Texans have allowed one WR1 (top-12) performance this year, and it came back in Week 1 (Michael Pittman Jr.). I doubt the Jaguars wide receivers will break this streak, but Christian Kirk and Zay Jones have been surprising most people this season. 

Jerry Jeudy has averaged 19.1 PPR points per game over his last six full games.

Since Week 11, AJ Brown is WR3 Overall and DeVonta Smith is WR4. Over this same stretch, they are averaging 37.4 PPG Combined.

This is one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) December 27, 2022

Tight End

During the past six weeks, you looked smart starting a TE against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos and Tennessee Titans. Travis Kelce should dominate, as usual. Dalton Schultz is a solid start and Jordan Akins, Trey McBride, Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith could be nice streaming options.  

Mark Andrews has only scored 26.7 PPR points (under 7 per game) during his last four games, including only 3.7 PPR points when the Ravens faced Pittsburgh just a few weeks ago. 

Evan Engram has been the top TE during the past four weeks, averaging more than 20 PPR points per game with a minimum of 14 PPR ppg. In Week 17, he faces a Houston defense that has been stingy against WRs but average against TEs, allowing 12.0 PPR points per game during the past four weeks.

Cole Kmet is the Bears' best receiving option in a prime TE matchup in Detroit. 

Mike Gesicki is a sneaky DFS GPP play in Week 17, with Bridgewater getting the start. More than 25% of Gesicki’s targets and two of his four touchdowns came in the two weeks Bridgewater started.

Week 17 Adjustments

Not every team has the incentives to put forth their full effort in Week 17.

• Tennessee can only clinch a playoff berth with a win in Week 18. They could rest players like Henry
• Jacksonville clinches with a Week 18 win, and their wild card odds only increase 8% with a win in Week 17
• Philadelphia, Dallas, Buffalo, Kansas City and Cincinnati are all playing for the top seed in their conference, so they will likely be playing their starters. But Dallas is sitting Pollard, given their matchup and depth at the position
• Minnesota and San Francisco have clinched a playoff berth but have no first-seed odds, so if Philadelphia wins at 1:00 p.m. EST, they could rest their starters or just play a half

When examining these rankings, consider I am really only looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex, a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within three spots of each other, the difference between them is negligible.

Good luck this week.

WATCH: Two Players to Fade in Fantasy for Week 17

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Kev Wheeler

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Kev Wheeler is a former high school baseball and football coach who has been a fantasy football addict for more than 25 years. As a coach, Wheeler's teams accomplished five county and two regional championships. Wheeler has translated his on-field success to the fantasy football arena.