NFL Analysis
11/18/24
6 min read
Where Did The NFL Get It Wrong With Bo Nix?
Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix should be a case study in quarterback development because the first-round rookie is blowing his preseason expectations out of the water.
Nix had the best game of his career in the 38-6 blowout win against the Atlanta Falcons, completing 28-of-33 passes for 307 yards, four touchdowns, and a 145.0 passer rating. It was a massive win against the likely NFC South winner and one that firmly put the Broncos in the playoff picture at 6-5.
The Broncos weren't expected to do much in Nix's first season. Now, their rookie quarterback has them believing that a playoff appearance is a real possibility after going 5-12 last season.
How Is Nix Dominating?
Nix looked a bit shaky in his first handful of NFL games. However, the 24-year-old has looked much more accurate and composed during the last few weeks.
In fact, Nix has been a top-10 quarterback in two key efficiency metrics in the last four games. He ranks No. 10 out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and adjusted net yards per pass attempt, according to TruMedia.
The two dots closest to Nix on that chart are established stars Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow.
It's not like Nix is dinking and dunking, either. He's in the middle of the pack with an average depth of target of 8.4 yards, with 33 percent of his passes going 10-plus yards downfield. Thanks to some terrific arm strength, Nix can zip the ball into tight windows in the intermediate area, especially when he can throw with good timing and footwork.
Bo Nix with one of the most impressive throws I've seen from a QB this season. pic.twitter.com/867Dyhenxu
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) November 18, 2024
He's not trying to constantly chuck deep balls, but Nix's passing chart shows how comfortable he's gotten at varying the depths and directions of his targets.
Nix wasn't expected to be a top-10 quarterback anytime soon. However, in the last few weeks, everything he's done suggests that he is quickly becoming one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league.
Where Did the LEague Get It Wrong?
It's not like Nix flew under the radar as a first-round pick, but as the sixth quarterback taken in the 2024 NFL Draft, it's worth wondering why other quarterback-needy teams decided to go in a different direction.
Unlike some of the other quarterback prospects, Nix didn't come into the league with elite physical tools. He has solid size at 6 foot 2 inches and 217 pounds and was touted for his arm talent and athletic ability to fit in a modern NFL offense.
However, there were concerns about Nix's accuracy and tendency to overthrow open receivers downfield, focusing too much on rifling passes in with arm strength instead of dialing back when needed.
Perhaps the biggest knock on Nix was the system he played in at Oregon. In such a dink-and-dunk offense to get the ball to their speedy playmakers, Nix threw behind the line of scrimmage on 28.1 percent of his passes, per PFF. He also threw 66.9 percent of his passes fewer than 10 yards downfield.
Despite the scheme, Nix continued to play with incredible efficiency. Only Jayden Daniels beat out Nix among the first-round quarterbacks in ANY/A and EPA per dropback during the 2023 season.
It's also worth noting how much playing experience Nix had in college. He set the all-time NCAA record with 61 starts at quarterback for Oregon and Auburn, recording more than 2,100 dropbacks in his college career.
While some scouts viewed that as a negative, citing Nix being 24 years old as a rookie as being bad value for a first-round pick, the Broncos viewed that experience as a positive. Nix's playing experience meant that he had seen it all and could play at the NFL level with composure and a feel for reading defenses.
In retrospect, those biggest knocks on Nix may have been overvalued because the former Oregon and Auburn quarterback has quickly gotten acclimated to the NFL level.
The Perfect Situation
Significant playing time in college might have helped Nix, but the Broncos quarterback also landed in a perfect situation where other young quarterbacks in the years haven't been able to say the same.
Head coach Sean Payton is notorious for being a quarterback-friendly coach, most notably by turning Drew Brees into a Super Bowl champion and future Hall of Famer with the New Orleans Saints. There were countless rumors and reports about Payton's interest in Nix prior to the 2024 NFL Draft, and his comments were telling once the team took him in the first round.
"He's extremely intelligent, really smart. He handled a lot of the protections," Payton said after Nix was drafted. "When you watch him, it's pretty calming. He's very efficient, and it's not just because of the [underneath throws]. You see a ton of NFL throws in their offense."
It wasn't just Payton's belief. The Broncos head coach also had a vision for how to ensure that the rookie quarterback would quickly adjust to playing in the NFL.
One way that Payton has gotten Nix ready for the NFL has been by using a fair amount of concepts from under center. Playing in spread offenses at the college level, Nix had just 14 dropbacks from under center in 2022 and 2023 combined.
According to TruMedia, Nix already has 63 dropbacks from under-center in 2024. He's posted a 102.5 passer rating on those dropbacks but has been particularly efficient on first downs, completing 69.2 percent of his passes for two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Despite it being such different footwork compared to playing in the shotgun, you can tell how focused Nix is on getting his steps right and throwing with a clean platform to deliver an accurate ball.
Bo Nix's dropbacks from under center at Oregon in 2022/2023: 14
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) November 18, 2024
With Denver in 2024: 63 pic.twitter.com/N4Dej13pL6
It also helps that an experienced veteran offensive line protects Nix. Outside of second-year center Alex Forsyth, the starting OL is filled with established veterans like Garett Bolles, Quinn Meinerz, and Mike McGlinchey to keep Nix clean in the pocket.
The results speak for themselves. According to PFF, Nix has only been under pressure on 31 percent of his dropbacks, which is the 10th-lowest rate among 38 qualified quarterbacks. He's also done a great job of avoiding sacks with one of the lowest pressure-to-sack ratios in the league at just 14.5 percent.
A strong, veteran offensive line, a No. 1 receiver in Courtland Sutton, and a head coach who believes in him have put Nix in the perfect situation to thrive immediately at the NFL level.
The Kansas City Chiefs may dominate the AFC West, but Nix and the Broncos could be a thorn in their side for years to come.
