Expert Analysis
12/13/23
14 min read
Which NFL Teams Should Consider Drafting a Quarterback in 2024?
The calendar will soon turn to 2024, but there are already many NFL teams looking ahead to April and pondering their quarterback situation. Several will consider picking a first-round player at the most important position.
This season's performance down the stretch of current starters or injured players at quarterback will certainly influence the direction teams go. In this coming Draft, there is a highly rated college crop of quarterbacks — with possibly six who could hear their names called in the first round in Detroit.
The salary cap will affect decisions about a player, such as Arizona’s Kyler Murray, who has too much dead money to be traded next year. Age, injury status and the high cost to re-sign a current starter could have an impact on players such as Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins.
GMs may look for an immediate starter such as C.J. Stroud, who has had a terrific rookie season as the No. 2 overall pick, or for a quarterback who can sit for a year and learn the offense. The latter was the case with Patrick Mahomes when the Kansas City Chiefs picked him 10th overall in 2017. He backed up Alex Smith in his rookie season before winning league MVP honors in Year 2 and leading the Chiefs to the AFC title game. Then Mahomes won the Super Bowl in his third season.
Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Michael Penix and J.J. McCarthy are among the college quarterbacks teams will be jockeying to draft in the first or second round. Here are a dozen NFL teams that are likely to be in the mix with teams listed by their current draft position.
12 Teams That Could Draft A Quarterback
1. Chicago Bears (first overall) 
The Chicago Bears are almost certain to hold the No. 1 overall pick (obtained in the Bryce Young trade) entering the offseason and pre-draft period. Whether they keep the pick and draft their highest-rated quarterback depends largely on the performance of Justin Fields in the final four regular-season games.
Based on his play in the last two games, leading the Bears to upset wins in Minnesota and at home against Detroit, Fields’ audition to remain in Chicago is going exceedingly well.
He showed his passing ability when he stepped up in the pocket and completed a 36-yard pass to DJ Moore to set up the winning field goal against the Vikings. Fields' speed and athleticism were on display on an 11-yard scramble for the touchdown that put the Bears up by 12 Sunday against the Lions. Fields has a career-high passer rating of 91.8 and was the third-ranked rushing quarterback with 458 yards.
If Fields can impress GM Ryan Poles with his performance in Cleveland this Sunday against the Browns’ top-ranked defense and can finish the season strong for the improving Bears (5-8), that should convince Poles to trade down a spot or two from No. 1. The Bears could add extra premium choices and pick star wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. to give Fields a dynamic receiving duo with Moore.
The Bears also have their own first-round pick (currently No. 5), and they can use that on a premier pass rusher or offensive line help.
If Fields' audition these next few weeks doesn't go well, Chicago is perfectly set up to take their top-rated passer in the class anyway.
2. New England Patriots (second overall)
Mac Jones is ranked 30th with a 77.0 passer rating. Bailey Zappe is worse with a 70 rating, but he is the current starter. Zappe was shut out two weeks ago by the Chargers’ lousy defense before he directed an upset win over the Steelers. Neither Jones nor Zappe are the long-term answer for the franchise that produced Tom Brady.
Jones had an excellent rookie season as the New England Patriots’ first-round pick in 2021 when he led the team to the playoffs and made the Pro Bowl. However, the past two seasons have been a disaster. Jones has dealt with injuries, offensive coordinator issues and a lack of supporting talent.
He’s 8-17 as the starter, and it’s pretty clear he needs a change of scenery. Meanwhile, the Patriots must either look to the draft for their next starter or at least select a young quarterback to compete for the starting job or be a back-up for a year.
Bill Belichick is the coach and GM who drafted Jones. Will he still be with the Patriots (3-10) to make the call on trading Jones and drafting a new quarterback, likely in the top five?
3. Washington Commanders (4th overall)
This is another floundering team (4-9) that is headed for a regime change under new ownership. The Washington Commanders hoped Sam Howell would make major strides in his second season after he was a fifth-round pick in 2022.
After a decent start with excellent games in close losses to Seattle (312 passing yards, three touchdowns) and Philadelphia (397 passing yards, four touchdowns, one interception) and three touchdown passes in a win at Atlanta, Howell has played poorly. He had one touchdown pass and five interceptions in consecutive losses to the Giants, Cowboys and Dolphins. His passer rating has dropped to 85.6, which ranks 23rd.
Howell needs an extremely strong finish to keep whoever is making Washington's pick in April from selecting a new quarterback high in the draft. The Commanders also have extra picks in the second and third rounds (from trading DEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young) that could help them move up to the first or second overall pick.
Finishing the season by playing against three top-10 defenses (the Jets, 49ers and Cowboys) is not going to help Howell’s cause.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (6th overall)
After getting shut out by the Vikings at home Sunday, the Las Vegas Raiders are headed for major change at quarterback when a new GM and coach are hired. With three straight losses, interim coach Antonio Pierce does not appear to have a chance of keeping the job unless the team wins out.
The free agent signing of Jimmy Garoppolo was derailed by his continued injuries and inconsistent play. The Raiders will likely cut him and absorb a $28 million dead cap hit.
Rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell took over at midseason for Garoppolo after Josh McDaniels was fired. O’Connell is 2-4 as the starter with a dismal passer rating of 74.8, and he’s not a threat to run.
Regardless of how O’Connell finishes the season, it’s highly likely the Raiders will tap into the college quarterback class for their next starter with a top-10 pick and keep O’Connell as the backup.
5. New York Giants (8th overall)
Daniel Jones had a fine season in 2022, going 10-7-1 as the starter and leading the New York Giants to a wild-card spot, followed by a playoff road win in Minnesota. His passing (92.5 rating) and running (708 yards, seven touchdowns) earned him a $40 million-per-year contract.
The Giants would absorb an enormous dead money hit if he was traded or released after a down season in which he was 1-5 before sustaining an ACL injury. That injury makes a trade or release more difficult.
New York has a lot invested in Jones, the sixth pick in 2019, besides his big contract. Jones’ prospects are further complicated by an injury history that also includes a neck injury that landed him on injured reserve for the last five games in 2021.
The Giants reportedly like Jones and expect him to be the starter next season. They also have an exciting undrafted rookie in Tommy DeVito, who just engineered a last-minute victory over the Packers. DeVito has won three straight games with 100-plus passer ratings and is 3-1 as the starter.
GM Joe Schoen could pick a top player at another position in the first round such as offensive line or wide receiver and then grab a quarterback with one of the Giants’ two second-round picks. Then he can see how Jones plays in his comeback year. If Schoen is not convinced of Jones’ future or if he likes the newcomer (or DeVito), Jones could be traded or released in 2025 with a more manageable $22 million dead money hit.
6. Atlanta Falcons (11th overall)
The Atlanta Falcons hoped they could follow the Seahawks’ blueprint of having an inexpensive third-round quarterback on a rookie contract. But Atlanta hasn't been as successful with Desmond Ridder as Seattle was with Russell Wilson (two Super Bowls, nine Pro Bowls). Ridder, in his second season, has been inconsistent at the helm of an offense loaded with talented skill-position players and a highly paid offensive line.
Ridder ranks 26th in passer rating (82.4) with only nine touchdown passes (and nine interceptions) in 11 starts, but he has rushed for five touchdowns and is 6-5 as the starter. He was benched by coach Arthur Smith after a loss in Tennessee where he suffered a concussion, but he was cleared to play the next week. However, Taylor Heinicke got the next two starts.
If Ridder doesn’t play well and lead the Falcons to a division title in the winnable NFC South — they are tied at 6-7 with Tampa Bay and New Orleans — or even if he has a good finish, the Falcons may consider drafting a top-flight quarterback in the first round.
7. New Orleans Saints (12th overall)
The New Orleans Saints gave Derek Carr a four-year, $150 million contract in the offseason in the hopes he would elevate a team with plenty of talent at other positions. The Saints have struggled at quarterback (with Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton) since Drew Brees’ retirement after the 2020 season.
New Orleans missed the playoffs the past two years and is in the NFC South hunt at 6-7 because the division does not have a dominant team.
Carr has been nothing special, especially for the money he’s being paid. He ranks 18th with an 89.4 passer rating and he’s been banged up with shoulder, back and concussion issues. Winston relieved Carr in several games without much success.
The Saints are basically stuck with Carr cap-wise in 2024 because he has a dead money hit of more than $50 million if they jettison him.
Unless Carr has a sizzling finish and New Orleans makes the playoffs, it’s logical that the team will pick a quarterback to develop as a rookie or step in for Carr if he’s ready to do so (or if Carr falters or gets hurt). Winston would then be released, and Taysom Hill would continue to be the wildcat quarterback and jack-of-all-trades player. Then Carr, who turns 33 in March, could be released in 2025 with a $17 million dead money hit.
8. Seattle Seahawks (13th overall)
The Seattle Seahawks are in free-fall after four straight losses to drop out of a playoff spot at 6-7. A tough Monday night game at home against the Eagles is on deck. Geno Smith was a great story last season after he took over for Wilson and had a career year with 30 touchdown passes and a 100.9 passer rating. He led Seattle to the postseason and made the Pro Bowl.
This season, Smith ranks 19th in passer rating after finishing fifth last season. He missed last week’s loss in San Francisco due to a groin injury, and backup Drew Lock threw two interceptions in the loss.
We’ll see if Smith can get healthy, elevate his performance and rescue the season to convince Seahawks GM John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll not to look to the draft for his successor. Smith, 33, was signed to a $25 million-per-year extension this year — but with a low guarantee, so the dead money hit is $17.4 million in 2024 or $8.7 million in 2025.
I expect the Seahawks to pick a quarterback high in the 2024 draft — perhaps Penix, who is in the neighborhood with the Washington Huskies — and hope for a repeat of their Wilson magic on a rookie deal.
9. Los Angeles Rams (14th overall)
Last year, when Matthew Stafford was lost for the year nine games into the season because of a spinal injury, it became a disaster. The 2021 Super Bowl champs fell to 5-12. The Los Angeles Rams didn’t have the draft capital due to the Stafford trade, among others, to pick a quarterback high in the 2023 draft and have Carson Wentz as the backup.
The franchise needs a talented heir apparent to Stafford, given his injury history and age (36 in February). Stafford will be back as the starter next season because the dead money hit is too much until 2025 ($37 million) or 2026 ($18.5 million).
Stafford has played well the past three weeks with 100-plus passer ratings in wins over Arizona and Cleveland and an overtime loss in Baltimore. But it behooves GM Les Snead and coach Sean McVay to draft a young quarterback now so that they have their full arsenal of picks in 2024 and can develop him for the future.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20th overall)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took a cheap flier on former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield with a one-year, $4 million contract plus incentives while they absorbed a $35 million dead money hit after Tom Brady’s retirement.
Mayfield, 28, has played fairly well (20 touchdown passes, eight interceptions, 89.7 rating, which ranks 17th) and has the Buccaneers leading the NFC South with four games to go based on tie-breakers.
Tampa Bay also has 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask, but he would be playing if he was the long-term answer.
It would make sense for Tampa Bay to keep Mayfield for one more year while the team drafts and develops a first-round quarterback to compete with Mayfield for the starting job and to back him up for a year, if necessary.
11. Minnesota Vikings (22nd Overall)
The Minnesota Vikings will start their fourth quarterback this season in journeyman Nick Mullens. Cousins’ season ended after an Achilles injury, rookie Jaren Hall was next but sustained a concussion, and then Josh Dobbs took over. Dobbs struggled in the past three games after an amazing start with two wins after a trade from Arizona.
Enter Mullens for Saturday’s game in Cincinnati.
Cousins, who turns 36 in August, is a four-time Pro Bowler who is in the final year of a $35 million-per-year deal and can’t be franchise tagged. He was having an excellent season with 18 touchdown passes, only five interceptions and a 103.8 passer rating (in the top five through eight games before his injury). Coach Kevin O’Connell indicated he’d like to have Cousins back in 2024, and his free agent prospects may be lessened as he recovers from the Achilles injury.
Unless Mullens, Dobbs or Hall leads the sixth-seeded Vikings to the playoffs and on a deep run, there’s a good chance Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah re-signs Cousins and drafts a quarterback in the first round for O’Connell to develop for a year or two a la what the Chiefs did with Mahomes.
12. Detroit Lions (27th overall)
Jared Goff finished last season with eight wins in his last 10 games and a 99.3 passer rating while making the Pro Bowl. The first overall pick in the 2016 draft by the Rams was off to an excellent start this season at 8-2. But the Detroit Lions have lost two of their last four games. Goff has had turnover problems surface with five interceptions and three lost fumbles — which included two picks in Sunday's upset loss to the Bears.
He has a 94.8 rating with 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and is one of the league’s least mobile quarterbacks.
Expectations have risen in Detroit, and if the Lions don’t finish the season strong with an NFC North title and a good postseason showing, Goff could be the fall guy. He’ll especially need to play well in the two matchups with Minnesota over the final three weeks that could decide the division race. Detroit hasn’t won a division title since 1993.
The Lions won’t have a top-15 pick but if Goff is a question mark after the season, GM Brad Holmes could try to move up and pick a quarterback to develop or to replace Goff with next season.
