NFL Analysis
7/30/24
8 min read
Who Could Be 2024’s Breakout NFL Pass Rusher?
Rushing the passer is back. It never went anywhere, but the way defenses have gone about it has changed during the past decade. The true star pass rusher disappeared for a bit as teams sent more players at the quarterback and from different spots on the field.
Since 2010, more players have gotten to the quarterback, with the number of players to total at least 10 quarterback hits continually rising. At the same time, the number of players who totaled at least 10 sacks dropped, but it has now risen each season since 2020.
In 2023, 25 players had at least 10 sacks.
With more players getting to the quarterback, we’re in a great era for pass rushing production. With that in mind, let's dive into some players who could join that double-digit sack club as a breakout pass rusher in 2024.
Potential 2024 Breakout Pass Rushers
Will Anderson, Houston Texans
Will Anderson, Houston TexansIt’s not necessarily going out on a limb to predict a No. 3 overall pick might break out in his second season. However, some might underestimate just how big this breakout could be based on a misunderstanding of how good Will Anderson’s rookie season was.
Anderson only had seven sacks, but he recorded 22 quarterback hits, tied for 17th among defenders. Based on how often Anderson got to the quarterback, we could have expected closer to 9.5 sacks during his first season. Anderson also ranked third in ESPN’s pass rush win rate among edge rushers.
Last season, Anderson had 17 pressures and 11 quarterback hits within 2.5 seconds of the snap. Those 11 hits tied for sixth. That’s an impressive feat and highlights Anderson’s quick movement off the snap, but it also highlights the small margin for error Anderson had to create pressure later in the play.
Opponents averaged the ninth-fastest time to throw against the Texans, so if pressure did not get home early, the ball was likely out. Houston made improvements across the roster that should make it harder for opposing offenses to get the ball out.
That will start in the secondary with second-round pick Kamari Lassiter opposite Derek Stingley Jr. Lassiter is receiving rave reviews in camp and was one of the best physical man coverage corners in this draft class.
The Texans will also have a more complete defensive line with more size inside and the addition of Danielle Hunter on the other edge. With this reworked Houston defense, Anderson should get more opportunities for 1-on-1 rushes and more time to get to the quarterback.
Getting to the quarterback more often, leading to a higher conversion rate of sacks to hits, could leave Anderson with a huge sack total in Year 2.
Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas City Chiefs
Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas City ChiefsThe Chiefs didn’t really need Felix Anudike-Uzomah during his rookie season. He had just 146 pass-rush snaps in 2023. But on that small sample of snaps, he had seven quarterback hits. That rate of hits per pass-rush snap ranked 37th among all defenders with at least 100 pass-rush snaps. Even with just that small total of hits, Anukie-Uzomah should have totaled more than only half a sack during his rookie season.
With Charles Omenihu on the PUP list while recovering from his torn ACL suffered in January, Anudike-Uzomah will get more playing time early in the season.
Coming into the draft, Anudike-Uzomah was praised for his pass-rush moves and hand usage. That’s typically something that comes later in a career for younger pass rushers, with most relying on quickness and athleticism early on.
Anudike-Uzomah didn’t always have the speed or strength to make all of those moves work off the line, but he’s been working on that. This offseason, he spent time with former Chiefs great Tamba Hali to improve his pass rush get-off on the line of scrimmage.
Andy Reid noted that Anudike-Uzomah is more comfortable with his get-off and overall in his second training camp. Reports have indicated that his speed and technique have come together for impressive reps during practices.
If Anudike-Uzomah can get on the field, the Chiefs will have plenty of other distractions that will allow him to get to the quarterback. Outside of Chris Jones sucking up so much attention from opposing offenses, Kansas City had the 12th-highest blitz rate and has a number of exotic sim pressure packages that create confusion about which four players are coming when there is no blitz.
Nik Bonitto, Denver Broncos
Nik Bonitto, Denver BroncosNik Bonitto, a second-round pick for the Broncos in 2022, was a selection for our overall breakout players earlier in the offseason, so it makes sense he would appear as a potential breakout pass rusher. Here’s a snippet of the reasoning:
Bonitto was one of the league’s most productive pass rushers on a per-snap basis. However, he only had 261 pass rush snaps on the year. Among players with at least 250 pass rush snaps, only Micah Parsons, Bryce Huff, Myles Garrett, and Josh Allen had a higher pressure rate than Bonitto’s 18.0 percent.
Every other pass rusher in the top seven with a pressure rate had at least 10 sacks, while Bonitto had eight. No pass rusher had a higher rate of quarterback hits on pass rush snaps than Bonitto at 7.7 percent. Allen, Huff, and T.J. Watt were the only players to hit at least 7.0 percent. Overall, Bonitto tied for 30th in quarterback hits with 20.
Banking on a Bonitto breakout is buying into the Millsap Doctrine, an NBA analytics theory that per-possession efficiency will remain similar while minutes played increase. Bonitto will have a bigger role in Denver's defense
Bonitto missed two games due to injury, but he played only one game last year in which he did not record a pressure, Week 7 against the Green Bay Packers. That includes a Week 14 game against the Los Angeles Chargers when he only played nine snaps and left early due to a knee injury.
During offseason workouts in June, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph called Bonitto a special player and a rusher.
So far in camp, Bonitto has missed a few days due to injury, but that doesn’t appear to warrant concern. If Bonitto is healthier for the entire 2024 season, his level of production to date should result in more sacks and a bigger impact as a rusher.
Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers
Rashan Gary, Green Bay PackersHaving Rashan Gary on this list is about the potential of the sixth-year player to jump into the top tier of pass rushers. Through five seasons, Gary has two with at least nine sacks, but he hasn't eclipsed double digits.
One of those seasons was 2023, when Gary returned from a torn ACL suffered in November 2022 with 9.5 sacks on 22 quarterback hits, which ranked 17th. He worked his way into more playing time early in the season. Gary was limited in practice during the first four weeks and did not play more than 30 snaps in a game until Week 5. He still finished as one of 25 players with at least one pressure in all 17 games.
Gary was on his way to a breakout season when he tore his ACL in 2022. During that season, Gary had his highest pressure and hit rates while converting half of his hits into sacks. At that pace, Gary could easily have had 11 or 12 sacks across a full season.
Gary is another year removed from the injury and will play in a more attacking defense. He told reporters at camp he feels more explosive coming out of a three-point stance, which he’ll do more of under defensive coordinator Jeff Haffley in 2024.
There has been excitement about what the Green Bay defensive line has looked like early in practice, though they have gone against an offensive line that is not 100 percent and still working things out.
Gary reportedly had a stretch of three sacks in four plays in an early practice against Andre Dillard, who will not be in the starting five for the regular season.
Still, the flashes of what a more aggressive defensive structure can do are apparent. If Gary gets more opportunities to pin his ears back and explode to the quarterback, we could see a player making a bigger impact in the backfield.
