NFL Analysis
10/11/24
8 min read
Why Ashton Jeanty Is Poised To Be The Next Top-10 NFL Draft Running Back
For most starting running backs, 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns is a great year. But Boise State Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty is different from most running backs, which is the best possible news for his NFL Draft outlook.
Jeanty averages nearly 11 yards per carry this season through five games, totaling 1,031 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns. The pace puts him on a potential collision course with some of Barry Sanders' all-time single-season marks.
That is, of course, assuming Jeanty and the Broncos don't blow out too many opponents in the first half. Jeanty's absence in the second half of games against Utah State and Portland State amid blowout wins amplifies the production profile.
If Jeanty wants it on the field, he can have it this season. Or, more appropriately, he takes it. His next conquest will be to finish one of the greatest single-season running back performances of all time. However, the one that waits for him after is a much more complicated one: helping to restore value to the running back position in the NFL Draft.
The NFL Draft averages nearly one and a half first-round running backs per year during the last decade, although that number has fallen to an average of one per year in the five.
Those fortunate enough to break through the positional value barrier have posted mixed results. Here is the last decade of first-round running back production.
The exclusive list narrows even more when you spotlight which of these runners has had their name called in the top-10 overall choices of their respective draft. Only Gurley, Elliott, Fournette, McCaffrey, Barkley, and Robinson achieved that rarefied air.
Could Jeanty be the next? He will certainly make a case.
Building a Top 10 RB
The common themes among these top-10 overall running backs are essential to identify DNA variables that can create consistent enough buy-in from teams across the league to help build a draft stock to go within the first 10 picks.
Five of the six top-10 running backs of the last decade were at least 215 pounds, qualifying them as "bigger" running backs. Christian McCaffrey was the lone outlier (202 pounds). The same five backs pair that stature with explosiveness.
A "Speed Score" is a size-adjusted indicator of 40-yard speed originating from Bill Barnwell at Football Outsiders. It is designed to contextualize how fast a running back is relative to their stature — and only McCaffrey posts a Speed Score below the 90th percentile among the top-10 running backs of the last decade.
Four of the six top-10 running backs from the last decade posted at least 60 career receptions, a strong indication of a third-down and passing-down profile to keep them on the football field at a volume that would justify a top-10 overall draft choice. That is, after all, one of the most significant value issues with a back, as the league has trended towards more platooning and rotation at the position.
Of the two backs drafted in the top 10 without 60 career receptions in college, Ezekiel Elliott posted 58 and did go on to develop a strong reputation as a pass protector. Only Leonard Fournette failed to come close to the consensus level of receiving production and, coincidently, only managed to surpass 700 snaps in a single season once in his career.
Four of the six top-10 running backs since 2015 also proved their reliability by logging at least 650 touches from scrimmage during their college careers. Todd Gurley suffered a torn ACL in his left knee during his junior season, preventing him from reaching that threshold by 75 total touches.
Bijan Robinson finished with 599 career touches after a relatively quiet freshman season, splitting carries with Roschon Johnson and a dislocated elbow that cost him time as a sophomore in 2021.
There are more commonalities between these backs, including the value of adding yardage to their touches, thanks to their respective athletic profiles, vision, and contact balance. Running backs are so often dependent on the other 10 players on the field to execute for their reps to produce quality returns, so having a running back who can create dynamic plays and yards on their own is an essential element to any running back who is going to break into the most exclusive of running back draft clubs.
>> READ MORE: See Where Jeanty Landed In Our Top 100
Jeanty Is Built Different
Jeanty stacks up well in each phase as he looks to build himself a top-10 NFL Draft resume. He is listed at 215 pounds, and he runs at least twenty pounds heavier than that — forecasts for his 40-yard dash time are in the low to mid 4.4 range.
Such a score would place him around the 90th percentile for a Speed Score, clearing the threshold five of the last six top-10 running backs have posted.
His passing game skill set is robust — he's already passed 60 career receptions after logging 43 in a single season during his sophomore campaign. Jeanty is well on his way to 650 career touches, as well — he's at 534 total with seven regular season games left to play. He'll need to average 16.5 touches per game the rest of the way to meet that mark by the end of the regular season schedule in November. Jeanty is currently averaging 20.2 touches per game this season.
The most essential mark of a top-10 running back goes back to those added yards. You can have all the marks of a productive running back, but without the film and the value to back it up, you're simply looking at an excellent resume on paper.
And Jeanty's film is where his resume speaks loudest.
Jeanty's 5-foot-9 frame carries his 215 pounds extremely well, affording him leverage and contact balance to pinball off of would-be tacklers while illustrating an innate feel for open spaces and creases to hit with the football.
Be it on the edge, pressing the line of scrimmage in the backfield, or on the second level working through congested traffic jams, Jeanty is finding more yards on his own than any other player in college football.
Since the start of the 2022 college football season, Jeanty is averaging five yards after contact per carry rushing the football. Relative to his recent peers through the draft process, he's in a league of his own. Jeanty's per-carry production is off the charts compared to the top 100 running backs from the last two drafts.
He does so despite seeing 8-man boxes on 41 percent of his carries — a mark that is 15 percent higher than the average player with at least 150 carries since 2022. Despite having so many congested boxes to run through, creating this kind of yardage on his own is a perfect testament to his individual value as a player.
Insane Ashton Jeanty stat: He has rushed against an 8-man box 30 times this season
— J.C. Shelton (@JCShelton_) October 10, 2024
Those carries have went for an average of 8.9 yards
pic.twitter.com/nupu8b30uA
Jeanty also receives less support from his Boise State line than most backs. According to TruMedia, only one top-100 back from the past two draft classes (Auburn's Tank Bigsby) received fewer yards before contact per rush since 2022 than Jeanty's 1.82 yards.
Jeanty's profile on film expands well beyond just breaking tackles and pinballing off defenders. The pass game resume is robust — a must for NFL backs to see the field early in their pro careers.
These skills are further enhanced when a back is injected into the stratosphere of the board that Jeanty is making a case for, but there should be little concern about his ability to execute here.
You want fun tape?
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) July 7, 2024
Put on Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty's (5082v, 217v) pass game cutup.
Checkout off-target wrong shoulder adjustment & hand placement. 👀
Then that explosive cutback!
Backs with Jeanty's skill level are 𝙃𝘼𝙍𝘿 𝙏𝙊 𝙁𝙄𝙉𝘿!
🧵1/4#TheDraftStartsInMOBILE™️ pic.twitter.com/fSLvGLESyu
The Broncos have charged him with modest reps in protection — 70 since the start of 2023. Yet, he showcases effective striking ability to sustain the depth of the pocket.
Jeanty has been charged with playing the A-gap in half-slide protections and the B-gap in four-man slides. Regardless of dropback passing or coming out of the mesh point in play-action, Jeanty is disciplined in stepping up to the line of scrimmage and processing threats. Pass protection is not passive, and Jeanty ensures his quarterback has the depth in the pocket needed to deliver throws.
These little things divide a top-50 prospect from first-round players or, in Jeanty's case, a first-round player from a top-10 player.
The market for a top-10 running back can be hit or miss, depending on the teams that land at the top of the board. Despite the recent league-wide trends of high safety alignment and boosted interest in running the football, it still feels like an uphill climb for a running back to secure such a lofty draft position.
However, if there is one guy worth betting on doing so, it's Jeanty. I see no reason he can't be the next top-10 running back. After all, he's taking everything else he wants this season while defying all conventional wisdom and logic.
Why not this, too?
