NFL Analysis
9/4/24
8 min read
Why Kansas City Chiefs Are More Likely Than San Francisco 49ers To Return To Super Bowl
A Super Bowl rematch of the previous year’s conference champions is a rarity. It last happened in 1992 and 1993 when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills in back-to-back Super Bowls.
That makes it unlikely both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will emerge out of their conferences to meet in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans next February.
I think the Chiefs are better positioned to return to the big game and win an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl.
WHY CHIEFS WILL REPEAT AS AFC CHAMPIONS
MAHOMES, REID, AND A RELATIVELY WEAK AFC WEST
As I’ve said since the 2023 postseason, I won’t pick against Kansas City as long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are at the helm.
Mahomes is the NFL’s best quarterback and player. Reid is an experienced, winning coach who oversees the offense and has a fine staff under him (with Steve Spagnuolo as a top defensive coordinator). Mahomes has led the Chiefs to six straight AFC title games and four Super Bowls in his six years as the starter. He’s a three-time Super Bowl MVP and two-time league MVP who knows how to win in the postseason.
The AFC West pales compared to the number of quality teams in the AFC North, where Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh made the 2023 playoffs. Cincinnati would have if QB Joe Burrow hadn’t missed the last seven games. Miami, Buffalo, and the New York Jets are potential threats from the AFC East, and Houston is a fast riser from the AFC South.
Even though the Chiefs finished last season as the AFC’s No. 3 seed, they proved they could win in tough road venues with victories at Buffalo and Baltimore. With their relatively weak division, Kansas City has an excellent chance to gain the top seed and home-field advantage, as they have done several times in recent years.
ROSTER OUTLOOK: IMPROVED WR CORPS A BIG PLUS
Mahomes has lots of help on offense from his excellent supporting cast led by All-Pro TE Travis Kelce and a solid offensive line. However, there is a new starting left tackle in rookie second-rounder Kingsley Suamataia. Drafting speedy WR Xavier Worthy and adding Marquise Brown (recovering from a shoulder injury) has improved the receiver corps. Isiah Pacheco is a hard-running back.
Having the second-ranked defense last season — led by two-time First-team All-Pro Chris Jones — was a big part of the team’s success. Jones is happy with his new $30 million plus per year contract, which bodes well for another big season for him.
2022 first-round CB Trent McDuffie also was a First-team All-Pro last season and led the secondary. Reid and Spagnuolo must replace a fine corner in the traded L’Jarius Sneed. Third-year man Jaylen Watson is being counted on in that spot.
Harrison Butker makes his share of controversial comments, but he’s one of the league’s best kickers.
Season PREDICTION
Before the Chiefs take the field for this Thursday’s opener with the Ravens, Reid will remind his team of how they were upset by the Detroit Lions in last season’s Week 1 game at Arrowhead. That was in large part to key dropped passes by Kadarius Toney, who was recently cut.
It’s a good time to face the Ravens, who lost 17-10 to the Chiefs in last year’s AFC title game and are breaking in many new starters on both sides of the ball.
The schedule is not overly daunting for Kansas City but does include five prime-time games that can disrupt the weekly routine. There are many strong teams to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC, but none are in the AFC West, which the Chiefs should win easily as they did last year by three games over the Raiders and Broncos. That will be their ninth consecutive division title.
I foresee Kansas City earning the AFC’s top seed and beating the Bengals in the AFC Championship (if Joe Burrow stays healthy) in another exciting matchup between those teams.
WHY 49ERS WON’T REPEAT AS NFC CHAMPIONS
Too Much Contract Angst? Injuries?
There’s little doubt the 49ers have as much talent as any NFC team. However, I don’t like the contract squabbles that produced too much drama during the offseason and training camp.
With Second-team All-Pro WR Brandon Aiyuk’s hold-in and constant trade discussions and First-team All-Pro OT Trent Williams holding out until agreeing to a new deal this week, both players could get off to slow starts this season. Beyond that, this is a loaded team that was a fourth-down stop away from beating the Chiefs in overtime in the Super Bowl before falling 25-22.
Brock Purdy was a Pro Bowl quarterback, who led the league in passer rating (113.0) last season. Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey is the best back in the league, but he has played in every game in only one of his past six seasons.
Can Purdy (who exited the NFC title game loss to the Eagles in 2022 with an elbow injury) and McCaffrey stay healthy and be available at full strength come the postseason? Williams has missed plenty of games during his 13-year career and the offensive line is not as good when he’s out. Star WR Deebo Samuel also missed several games last season.
On the plus side, First-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl TE George Kittle provides further firepower and an excellent blocker on offense. He, along with Purdy, McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Samuel, Williams, and Pro Bowl FB Kyle Juszczyk bring elite talent for coach Kyle Shanahan to produce a winning scheme.
ROSTER OUTLOOK: Postseason DEFENSIVE ISSUES
The San Francisco defense declined slightly in 2023, falling from No. 1 to No. 8. The defensive line, led by Nick Bosa, is talented and got a good free-agent addition in Leonard Floyd. Fred Warner is a terrific playmaker as a First-team All-Pro linebacker. His fellow star LB Dre Greenlaw opens the season on PUP as he recovers from a torn Achilles sustained in the Super Bowl.
I question the 49ers' defense, which had trouble in the 2023 postseason. They allowed 31 points and 442 total yards to the Lions in a three-point NFC title game win. Then, Mahomes lit them up with 333 passing yards, and the Chiefs had 455 total yards in the Super Bowl.
Season PREDICTION
The Los Angeles Rams were a 10-win wild card team last season but must replace Aaron Donald and keep QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp healthy. The 49ers are still better than the Rams, who should be a wild-card contender. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are no threat and should provide the 49ers with a pair of wins each.
I think San Francisco will win their division by a couple of games over the Rams and compete with the Lions for the NFC's top seed.
There are several other title contenders in the NFC. The Philadelphia Eagles should be in the hunt if Jalen Hurts returns to his top form from 2022 and the young corners (first-rounder Quinyon Mitchell and second-rounder Cooper DeJean) develop quickly in the secondary.
The Dallas Cowboys didn’t do much to improve in the offseason. Coach Mike McCarthy is in the final year of his contract and Owner/GM Jerry Jones has dealt with plenty of player contract issues, which is especially not good when it involves starting QB Dak Prescott. Still, Dallas is talented enough to contend.
The Green Bay Packers played the 49ers tough in a three-point divisional playoff game. They are a young team led by a rising quarterback in Jordan Love, who could become a Super Bowl contender this season.
I think it’s the Lions, with their prolific offense led by five Pro Bowlers last season and newly extended QB Jared Goff (a 2022 Pro Bowler), who should scare the 49ers most. Detroit’s defense was suspect last season but it drafted cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw in the first two rounds to upgrade a shaky secondary.
The Week 17 Monday night game with Detroit at San Francisco could determine the NFC's top seed.
I’m just not buying into a repeat trip to the Super Bowl for the 49ers, with their defense causing their eventual downfall. I see the Lions unseating them this season and facing the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
