Analysis
8/4/23
5 min read
Why Lamar Jackson Is Best Bet to Throw the Most Interceptions in 2023
There are countless ways to bet on the NFL, including league leaders markets. Today we’re going to discuss Ryan Reynolds’ recent bet on Lamar Jackson to throw the most interceptions in the NFL.
The first step in betting on any future option is to understand the market you’re betting on. That process starts by looking at past winners.
Benchmarking Recent Interception Leaders
| Year | Quarterback | GP | Att | Int | Int% | Career Int% | Draft Round |
| 2022 | Dak Prescott | 12 | 394 | 15 | 3.81% | 1.98% | 4th |
| 2022 | Davis Mills | 15 | 479 | 15 | 3.13% | 2.86% | 3rd |
| 2021 | Matthew Stafford | 17 | 601 | 17 | 2.83% | 2.37% | 1st |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence | 17 | 602 | 17 | 2.82% | 2.11% | 1st |
| 2020 | Carson Wentz | 12 | 437 | 15 | 3.43% | 2.01% | 1st |
| 2020 | Drew Lock | 13 | 443 | 15 | 3.39% | 2.82% | 2nd |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston | 16 | 626 | 30 | 4.79% | 3.39% | 1st |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger | 16 | 675 | 16 | 2.37% | 2.50% | 1st |
We’re going to keep things simple with this short, five-year sample. Here are some key takeaways we can use to make sharper bets:
- We need a quarterback to throw at least 15 interceptions.
- Both high-quality and volatile quarterbacks consistently lead the league in interceptions.
- Three of the last five races ended in a tie.
- Four of these eight quarterbacks missed two or more games.
- General passing volume (attempts) was less essential than expected.
- In most cases, we need a quarterback to exceed their career interception percentage.
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Betting on Lamar Jackson
In a nutshell, Reynolds took this bet because Jackson was a long shot, with a realistic path to winning, that can be had at a notable value between sportsbooks. Reynolds detailed his reasoning in The 33rd Team futures bets channel in our free Discord, where he and our team will be dropping plays throughout the NFL season in our Discord.
Not only should you have a reasonable stance behind your option in a futures market, but you also need to be very aware of the competition. Reynolds breaks that down by categories.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert throwing a pass. He's in an all-white uniform" width="1920" height="1280" />
‘Talented’ Contenders
Dak Prescott, +1000
Dak Prescott tied for the league lead in interceptions last year. This offseason, Mike Martz discovered that many of Prescott’s interceptions weren’t his fault. Ben Wolbransky took an analytical deep dive on the same subject and arrived at a similar conclusion. We aren’t considering a Prescott bet in this market.
Josh Allen, +1000
The Buffalo Bills run a very pass-centric offense, and Josh Allen has double-digit interceptions in four of his five seasons, reaching 15 once. Allen should be among the favorites in this market.
Kirk Cousins, +1300
Kirk Cousins has double-digit interceptions in six of his past eight seasons. The most he’s had in a single season is 14, which happened last year. With the Minnesota Vikings potentially being even more pass-centric this season and the team being an obvious negative regression candidate in many ways, Cousins should be among the favorites in this market.
Justin Herbert, +1500
In each of his three seasons, Justin Herbert has double-digit interceptions, finishing with 15 in 2021. He’ll be in a new, more aggressive offense this season and should be among the fringe favorites in this market.
Matthew Stafford, +1500
Not only has Matthew Stafford recently led the league in interceptions, he did so when he was an MVP contender on the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams in 2021. Stafford has eclipsed 15 interceptions five times in his career, maxing out at 20 in his rookie season in just 10 games. Every time Stafford has played in 10 or more games, he’s had double-digit interceptions. If you can get Stafford at a value in this market, he’s a very logical bet.
Joe Burrow, +1600
Joe Burrow had double-digit interceptions in each of his two full seasons. Much like Herbert, Burrow should be just outside the top-five options in this market.
‘Volatile’ Contenders
Jordan Love, +1300
Jordan Love has only thrown 83 passes during three seasons as a pro. That’s a small sample, but he threw three interceptions over that period, good for a 3.6 interception percentage. If you can find Love at better odds in this market, he’s a very reasonable bet.
Deshaun Watson, +1500
In Deshaun Watson’s three full seasons, he reached double-digit interceptions just once. However, Watson looked like a different player after he returned from suspension last year. If you believe Watson’s performance at the end of 2022 is his new reality, he could contend in this market. If he returns to form, that becomes much less likely. Given the uncertainty, Watson is a player to monitor in this market.
C.J. Stroud +2000
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is a rookie with arguably the league’s worst group of wide receivers. We wouldn’t recommend a bet on him today, but much like Watson, Stroud warrants monitoring.
Quarterbacks Who Likely Get Benched if They Struggle
Ryan Tannehill, +1500
When the Tennessee Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins, they signaled they aren’t rebuilding. Still, if Ryan Tannehill is in contention to lead the league in interceptions, there’s a fair chance the Titans will be struggling. In that scenario, there is a strong chance Tennessee will see what it has in Will Levis down the stretch.
Mac Jones, +2500
Mac Jones has hit double-digit interceptions in each of his first two seasons. The issue here is that Jones struggled throughout his sophomore campaign, which makes him more likely to be benched than Love would be in Green Bay.
Baker Mayfield, +2500
Baker Mayfield has reached double-digit interceptions in three of the four seasons he played in at least 10 games. His single-season high is 21 interceptions, which happened in the year Jameis Winston threw an astounding 30. The primary issue with taking Mayfield at these very reasonable odds is that if he struggles, there’s a very good chance the Tampa Buccaneers pivot to Kyle Trask. In fact, there’s at least some chance Trask opens the season as the team’s starter.
Follow Ryan Reynolds on Twitter @RyanReynoldsNFL.
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