NFL Analysis
3/3/24
5 min read
Why Xavier Worthy Should Move Down Draft Boards After NFL Combine
Heading into the 2024 NFL Combine, all eyes were on Texas WR Xavier Worthy to run the fastest 40-yard dash of the cycle. Instead, he ran the fastest one in history. But after breaking John Ross’ record with an official 4.21-second time, all eyes will be on Worthy for a different reason.
Has he worked himself into the first round after nailing the athletic testing portion of the combine on Saturday? The NFL world is waiting to see.
OFFICIAL: 4.21
— NFL (@NFL) March 2, 2024
XAVIER WORTHY HOLDS THE NEW 40-YARD DASH RECORD pic.twitter.com/IrXf3WyemB
Will Worthy's Size Be a concern?
Worthy tested well in Indianapolis, but concerns from the weigh-in could leave more questions than answers. Worthy measured 5-foot-11, 165 pounds. His lack of mass packed into a sub-6-foot frame leaves plenty of questions.
What will his play strength be? Can he play on the outside and fight through press-man coverage? Along with his slender frame, Worthy’s 8.75-inch hands are below average. That shows on tape, as Worthy struggled with drops and natural hand catches.
Even after running the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL history and posting well above-average numbers in the vertical and the broad jump, teams will question if a major weight cut boosted those numbers.
While the question is valid, Worthy was a twitchy, explosive athlete on tape at Texas. He appeared to play at around 175 pounds during the 2023 season.
He is an impressive athlete, but the list of sub-170-pound receivers who find NFL success is short. There is a recent track record — Tank Dell, Tutu Atwell, Marquise Brown and Devonta Smith. But Smith is the only one who measured over 5-foot-10 while weighing 170 or fewer pounds.
Worthy’s unique body type puts him on a small list of guys who were difference-makers at that size. That leaves NFL evaluators in a tough spot about how to value the combine's 40-yard dash record-holder.
Don't Count a Trait Twice
Heading into the combine, Worthy was a top-50 player for many evaluators. And while we don’t want to count Worthy’s impressive testing twice, dynamic speed is something teams put a lot of emphasis on when separating receivers at the end of the first round and into Day 2. For a player who tested so well but weighed in so light, it will be interesting to see which aspect of Worthy’s combine experience gets more attention in the evaluation process.
Teams will not do what many fans and media scouts are doing – count Worthy’s speed and explosiveness twice. Worthy’s tape already showed him to be one of the best athletes in the country. He proved he was one of the NCAA's most dynamic speed and yards-after-catch threats.
Worthy had a limited target share on deep targets at Texas, but much of his production came via the quick passing and screen game. Not much should change in the NFL.
Here's a screen showing off Xavier Worthy's speed pic.twitter.com/YY4IcdpTKe
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) March 3, 2024
Moving Worthy Down?
What makes this very interesting is how, even after dominating the combine from an athletic testing standpoint (9.37 unofficial relative athletic score), Worthy might not have helped his stock as much as some think with such a poor weigh-in.
In reality, teams likely will move Worthy down in their rankings due to concerns regarding his hand and overall size. Worthy probably will add weight before his Pro Day to allay those concerns. But there is no denying that Worthy is an outlier — even though he has elite traits — at a premium position.
Worthy’s name will be thrown around in first-round mock drafts. But even after putting himself in the record books, he should still be a Day 2 selection. He needs to land in the right offense, with the proper usage, to blossom into the player he was at Texas.
It’s no surprise that wide receivers who run fast normally get drafted pretty early. But when taking a look at the entire picture, we have to understand that there is a risk in drafting an undersized but fast receiver in the first round. Worthy is a unique player, and the way he was used at Texas translates well to the NFL, but would drafting Worthy in the first round of the draft be a mistake?
When taking a look at the data, the answer is much closer to yes than no.
While the 40-yard dash is one of the combine's more exciting aspects, we have a long enough track record now to see that the best testers have struggled to turn their speed into production at the NFL level.
With reports already starting to float around that Worthy has entered the Round 1 conversation, we need to realize what history has shown us about the undersized and fast wide receiver.
As exciting as the combine is, teams should use it to confirm what showed up on tape. Worthy is an outstanding player who proved he was a high-end athlete on tape.
What he did on Saturday evening only confirmed what everyone who watched him saw when turning on the Texas offense over the last three seasons, and teams would be wise not to count his best traits twice.
